Republicans need to gain only four seats in the House to constrain Democrats.
However, House Republicans are beginning to question their chances in the next midterm elections, raising worry among some of Kevin McCarthy’s friends.
Despite Republican members’ conviction that the party will be able to retake the House in the fall owing to favorable historical tendencies, there are fresh fears inside the party that Democrats may be able to undercut the party’s victories.
However, Republicans who violate the law in an attempt to influence elections will not be successful.
The FBI arrested a New York election commissioner in connection with an absentee ballot fraud conspiracy.
“Jason Schofield was arraigned before U.S. Magistrate Judge Daniel J. Stewart on Tuesday on an indictment charging him with unlawfully using the names and dates of birth of voters to fraudulently apply for absentee ballots for elections held in Rensselaer County in 2021,” according to Conservative Brief.
Republican Schofield was freed on his own recognizance until his upcoming trial before U.S. District Judge Mae A. D’Agostino.
“He is suspected of illegally holding and exploiting the names and dates of birth of voters in connection with absentee ballot applications he made on the website of the New York State Board of Elections in 2021.” The indictment says that Schofield applied for absentee ballots in the names of persons who had no intention of voting in 2021 and who did not solicit absentee ballots or Schofield’s aid in voting or getting absentee ballots, according to Fox News.
“The indictment indicated that in some of these instances, Schofield also seized control of absentee votes provided to these voters, presented them to voters, and had them sign absentee ballot envelopes without actually voting. This reportedly allowed Schofield or another individual to vote in these voters’ names in the primary and general elections of 2021 in Rensselaer County.”
On each of the 12 counts, Schofield faces up to 5 years in jail, a $250,000 fine, and up to 3 years of post-incarceration supervised release if convicted.
“Jason T. Schofield was arrested outside his residence Tuesday morning by the FBI and charged with fraudulently obtaining and processing absentee ballots last year using personal information of at least eight voters without their permission.” https://t.co/2hKodPXXz9
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 13, 2022
— Brendan Lyons (@Brendan_LyonsTU) September 13, 2022
The arrest goes to show that despite Democrats saying elections are more secure than ever, they really aren’t.
The midterm elections are just around the corner in November.
An analysis in the New York Times on Monday seemed to tame Democratic expectations for the midterms.
It suggested in its newsletter, “The Morning,” that recent polling suggesting Democrats are making gains may be incorrect again, based on the analysis of final polls from 2020, which overstated Biden’s strength in several states, including North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, where key Senate races will be decided.
David Leonhardt, a senior writer for the Times, noted:
The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race; instead, Trump won it easily.
In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
“One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey,” he continued. “If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.”
A chief political analyst at the paper, Nate Cohn, added: “Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from the expectations set by historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Republicans are expected to pick up two seats while regaining control of the House – despite Democrats holding a slight 0.4 percent lead on the generic ballot, still well inside the sampling error.
RCP’s average of polls shows Biden’s approval rating at 42 percent compared with his unfavorable rating at 52.8%. Kamala Harris is less favorable, with 36.3 percent against 51.2 percent for unfavorable.
A total of 40.7 percent of respondents find Donald Trump to be favorable, while 54.0 percent find him unfavorable, according to RCP averages. Several candidates he has endorsed are on the ballot, even though he is not on it.
In a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, 52 percent of voters support the impeachment of Joe Biden, while 42 percent opposed it. Republican support amounted to 77 percent, independent support 50 percent, and Democratic support 32 percent, according to The Washington Examiner.