HomePolitics‘Misery Index’ Offers A Bad Omen For Democrats Days Before Midterms

‘Misery Index’ Offers A Bad Omen For Democrats Days Before Midterms

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Several recent polls reflect the concerns on the minds of American voters as they head to the polls on Tuesday. The findings of these polls are not encouraging for Democrats.

43% of respondents to a Bankrate study feel their financial situation is worse than it was two years ago, while only 18% say it is better. The majority of respondents in the first group attribute the economic challenges on Democrats. 69% of those who reported worsening finances, including 30% of Democratic respondents, put “at least a substantial degree of responsibility” on Biden, while 71% placed blame on Democrats in Congress.

Eighty-four percent of respondents, according to a survey conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post, cite the economy as their main worry, although Republicans lead Democrats by a double-digit margin in terms of economic management trust. The latter party’s candidates have placed their bets on secondary and tertiary topics, such as abortion and countering election denial.

55% of entrepreneurs, according to a third Job Creators Network study, feel that Republicans would “do more to help small businesses” than Democrats. The tendency persisted among female-owned firms, while an even greater proportion of minority-owned businesses showed a preference for Republicans, indicating substantial support for Republicans even among populations where they have historically struggled.

Americans tend to be most concerned about the economy, and they view a Republican administration as the greatest remedy for the economic woes.

In every election, residents want to preserve what they believe to be good and alter what makes life difficult. Arthur Okun, head of President Lyndon Johnson’s Council of Economic Advisers, created the Misery Index, which is the simple sum of unemployment and inflation in the United States. However, the Misery Index may also provide illuminating insights into the attitude of American voters heading into the election.

As Republicans and Democrats make their closing arguments in the struggle for control of Congress, the eyes of experts and commentators are drawn to the raw poll data. What role does the condition of American society play? The Daily Wire reports:

“In the only general election debate between President Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter, the former candidate asked one of the most important questions ever posed to the voting public: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Days later, the Great Communicator went on to win one of the largest electoral landslides in history.

Why did the question resonate so strongly with millions of Americans? To take a second remark, this time from one of President Bill Clinton’s senior advisors: “It’s the economics, stupid.”

A higher value on the Misery Index indicates a more wretched populace. For example, the misery index for September 2022 is 11.70, which is the sum of 3.5% unemployment and 8.2% inflation.

Daily Wire gives a recap of the past:

“Scrolling through a visual representation of the metric will quickly indicate the metric’s usefulness as a heuristic for predicting tide changes in American electoral politics. The stagflation witnessed under the tenure of President Jimmy Carter caused a surge in both unemployment and inflation ahead of the ascension of President Ronald Reagan, who oversaw consistent declines in economic misery before his successor, President George H.W. Bush, assumed power, granting Republicans an unusual three consecutive terms in the Oval Office

More on this story via The Republic Brief:

Three decades later, misery levels remained low throughout the tenure of President Donald Trump until the lockdown-induced recession, which caused a sudden increase in unemployment as workers were sent home under public health mandates. However, when President Joe Biden entered office, unemployment gradually recovered even as inflation soared, leading to a rapid increase in the overall misery level.” CONTINUE READING…

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