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Uh Oh: NBC News Drops New Trump vs. Biden Poll — And There’s Never Been a Result Like This

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Without exception, the validity of a survey can differ considerably from one to the next due to a variety of factors, including methodology and error margins.

Polling can also be significantly influenced by the organization that administers it.

In general, Democratic candidates can anticipate more favorable results from polls conducted by left-leaning news organizations, such as The Washington Post, whereas Republican candidates can anticipate more favorable results from polls conducted by centrist news organizations, such as The Wall Street Journal.

Given that, it’s hardly a surprise that NBC News polls looking at hypothetical Joe Biden – Donald Trump match-ups (dating back to when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was the challenger) have always tilted in the Democrat’s favor.

Until now.

A minor advantage for Trump has emerged in an NBC News poll concerning a hypothetical general election matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the first time in history.

(Of note, as NBC News is quick to point out, “the deficit is well within the poll’s margin of error for a contest that’s still more than 11 months away.”)

Nevertheless, upon closer inspection of the data, even a marginal lead within the margin of error could prove to be an enormous burden for Biden due to the overall trajectory of these NBC News polls.

As recently as July 2023, Biden was enjoying a 49-45 lead over Trump (which exceeds the margin of error of 3.1 percentage points), with just 6 percent of voters unsure or undecided.

In September, Biden and Trump tied for the same number of ballots (46 percent each), with 8% of voters remaining undecided.

And now, in November, Trump has once more surpassed Biden 46-44, with 10 percent of voters remaining undecided, according to an NBC News poll.

It is a concerning development for the incumbent Democratic president, who is finding it increasingly difficult to find positive developments as each subsequent poll examines the highly probable 2024 general election matchup between Trump and Biden.

Some interesting demographic breakdowns of this new NBC News poll:

  • Biden leads Trump among black voters (a whopping 69 to 20 percent advantage), women (52 percent to 39 percent), and white voters with college degrees (51 percent to 40 percent.)
  • Trump leads Biden among white voters (53 percent to 39 percent), male voters (55 percent to 35 percent) and rural voters (58 percent to 35 percent.)

An important concern identified by NBC regarding Biden is the protracted Israel-Hamas conflict that has engulfed the region.

The vast majority of Americans (56 percent to 34 percent among registered voters) disapprove of Biden’s management of the conflict, according to the poll.

The schism within the Democratic Party regarding this dispute is evident even in the absence of the NBC News poll; some Democrats even joined forces with Republicans to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib, an especially outspoken pro-Palestinian legislator among U.S. lawmakers.

Conversely, Tlaib has persistently criticized Biden for his management of the Gaza conflict, which appears to be indicative of Biden’s unfavorable polling performance concerning the situation in Israel.

In conclusion, these NBC News polls for Team Biden indicate that the former president’s enormous margin over his GOP contemporaries diminishes the likelihood that he will be defeated by a primary challenger from the party.

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