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New York Times Poll Shows Bleak Outlook For Democrats Less Than A Month Before Election Day

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According to the most recent New York Times/Siena Group survey, Republican candidates for the House and Senate have surpassed Democratic candidates on the generic ballot, driven by rising economic worry.

The study found that 49% of probable voters supported the Republicans, compared to 45% for the Democrats. This is a turnaround from September’s results, which showed a 1% edge for Democrats.

The surge was mostly driven by polls on the economy and inflation, which 44% of respondents identified as the most important issue confronting the country today and where people backed the Republicans by a 2:1 ratio. In September’s study, only 36% of respondents named the economy and inflation as their main concern.

Republicans’ gains were aided by the backing of independent voters, who favored them by 10%, while their cushion of support among women independents climbed to 18% — a 32-point flip from September, when Democrats enjoyed a 14% advantage. In 2016, a Hillary Clinton campaign official told NPR that white suburban independent women were “the lowest-hanging fruit for expansion” among all electoral demographics.

Robin Ackerman of New Castle, Delaware, a registered Democrat, told the New York Times, “I’m leaning more Republican because I feel they’re more business-oriented,” despite the fact that she disagreed “1,000 percent” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The study revealed that just 5% of voters consider “abortion” to be the most pressing problem confronting the nation.

When questioned about the 2024 presidential election, likely voters favored former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden by a margin of 1%, 45% to 44%. In addition, the survey revealed that Biden’s job approval rating was only 39%, while 64% of respondents said the country was moving in the “wrong path.”

Gerald Lamoureux, a Democratic-registered voter in Connecticut who intends to vote Republican, told the Times, “I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner.”  According to RealClearPolitics, a Connecticut Examiner survey showed Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal leading Republican rival Leora Levy by barely 5%, a margin that has been slashed in half since September.

FiveThirtyEight rated the dependability of the NYT/Sienna survey, which surveyed 792 potential voters and had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, as A+.

“While Democrats deflect blame and offer no solutions to the crises they created, voters are worried about getting food on the table and affording gas. Republicans are focused on the kitchen table and pocketbook issues that are burdening families across the country,” said Nicole Morales, a spokesperson for the RNC, adding that “Republicans have the message, momentum, and motivation to win this November.”

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