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Shocking Move Could Hand Trump The Presidency In 2024

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A recent analysis undertaken by a pair of political strategists offers former President Donald Trump promising prospects, suggesting that he may have the ability to challenge President Joe Biden in a subsequent election in the future year.

Troy Olsen, a political author and Army veteran based in New York City, and Gavin Wax, a GOP strategist and executive director of the National Constitutional Law Union, highlight a prevailing discussion in an article for The Daily Caller that posits the possibility that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the Democratic Party and subsequent candidacy as an Independent for the presidency could potentially undermine the electoral chances of Trump, as opposed to having a detrimental impact on Biden by diverting attention away from him.

“While early polling on this question is not very numerous, there is little evidence for their argument and much evidence that an RFK Jr. independent run will hurt his party’s incumbent president,” according to the pair.

“President Joe Biden is in a historically weak position. Arguably the weakest incumbent since President Carter or even before,” the analysts went on.

The authors of the upcoming book, “The Emerging Populist Majority,” highlight the historical impact of third-party and independent candidates who secure 5 percent of voter support. They argue that such candidates have a detrimental effect on the incumbent president, “similar to a viable primary challenge within the president’s party.”

“It weakens the president’s political standing. Arguments against this idea will cite the ideological orientation and similarities to anti-establishment populist candidates. The problem with this analysis is that independent voters are not nearly as ideological as the politicians and partisans who endlessly obsess over these details,” the two continued.

The analysts argue that “independent and unaligned voters are all over the map ideologically. If they had a broad agreement, you would have an easier time building an actual third-party option around that, yet none has emerged despite attempt after attempt to do so. At a time when the American people report record dissatisfaction with institutions, political parties and the direction of the country, all of these factors play against the incumbent party. While Kennedy Jr. and Trump may agree on some of the most significant issues of our time, the reality is Kennedy Jr. is a pretty solid old-school liberal who today comes off as heterodox because the Democrat Party has moved on from liberalism across most dimensions.”

Following this, the authors proceeded to furnish illustrative instances from previous presidential elections in which the incumbent presidents were adversely affected by the presence of third-party candidates.

— “In 1912, incumbent President William Howard Taft was done in by the Republican establishment Bull Moose split over Theodore Roosevelt’s attempt to rectify his mistake of retiring too early.”

— “Henry Wallace and Strom Thurmond were no help to incumbent Harry Truman in 1948, and a Democratic vote split similar to the Republican one of 1912 in the incumbent party as the solid south left the New Deal coalition, an event the coalition has never recovered from.”

— “Even though he was a Republican in Congress, John Anderson proved to be no help for President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, vs. a challenging Republican in Ronald Reagan. In 1992, it’s been widely remarked that Ross Perot’s candidacy hurt incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush.”

The researchers assert that the support obtained by Jill Stein, a leftist candidate, and Gary Johnson, a former Republican governor, in 2016 significantly influenced the outcome of the 2020 election in favor of Joe Biden; thus, their impact in 2016 could have been just as decisive.

There is a suggestion that historical occurrences of voting against the incumbent, irrespective of the underlying reasoning, may be construed as evidence of a referendum rather than a purposeful decision.

“Rather than opine how Kennedy Jr., who will exhaust considerable resources to get on the ballot, will hurt or spoil the chances of reelection through a final round of misplaced Camelot nostalgia, the more interesting analysis will be where elections are decided — in the electoral college,” the analysts observed.

“And if Kennedy Jr. has no path to victory through the electoral college, much of his vote will likely come home to Trump and Biden near the end anyway,” according to them.

As per the findings of a reputable pollster, the Republican primary contest has concluded in earnest, and former President Donald Trump has been declared the victor months prior to the start of the electoral process.

Moreover, according to the empirical research conducted by John and Jim McLaughlin, Trump demonstrates strong performance in polls when compared to President Biden, thus suggesting a legitimate likelihood of his victory in the future year.

According to their article on Newsmax, “Since our last national poll, Donald Trump has gone to Iowa, New Hampshire, and to court. The most attention Joe Biden received was when he flew back and forth to Israel, where he may be talking tough while appeasing Hamas and Iran.”

According to them, “The result: President Trump destroys the Republican primary field and widens his lead over Joe Biden.”

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